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Potentially boding well for the Macquarie forecast are at least two factors. First, there are signs of turnover increases across a variety of yes/no exchanges. Second, volume surged to start September with those spikes arriving even before the NFL season kicked off.
As Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon points out, prediction markets generated $4.3 billion in taker volume during the first week of September without any help from the NFL, building on momentum from the 2026 World Cup. However, the NFL’s impact was immediate, with taker volume hitting a daily record during Week 1 of the campaign.
With all that in mind, it’s not surprising that Macquarie expects sports event contracts will drive approximately 80% of taker volume this year, but Beynon sees other categories growing over the long term.
About Fat Banker
Another bettor noted that gambling debts fractured personal relationships: “Sports betting ruined my six years of friendship because I couldn’t pay back the borrowed loan from my friend. He stopped talking to me.”
Americans wagered nearly $167 billion on sports in 2025 through regulated sportsbooks, an 11% increase year-over-year, according to data from the American Gaming Association (AGA).
The blurring line between financial investing and gambling has been accelerated by the rise of prediction markets—exchanges offering event contracts that are federally regulated as financial derivatives. U.S. News found that over 40% of active sports bettors now also participate in sports prediction markets.
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Following the decision, the odds of one additional rate hike this year jumped to 48% on Wednesday afternoon on Polymarket. The contract asks traders to predict whether the upper bound of the Fed Funds Rate will hit 4.25% by the end of 2026. There is now a 21% chance that the Fed will stand pat for the remainder of year, with a slightly lower probability that the upper bound will reach at least 4.5%.
According to Multiples.VC, the average enterprise multiple (EV/EBITDA) of top US-listed gaming companies is currently 10x. Data from New York University last updated in January pegged the overall market average at 23.9x and 19.7x among EBITDA-positive firms, suggesting the sector is undervalued relative to other industries. In a report released Monday, Fitch Ratings said most North American gaming companies hold “Stable” outlooks with “adequate rating headroom” despite consumer headwinds.
Macquarie’s Beynon agrees with that sentiment, pointing to the relative stability of gaming companies through tough economic stretches such as the Covid-19 pandemic. Bankruptcies in the sector have been low relative to the broader market, he notes, and both land-based and digital companies have reason for optimism moving forward.
